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Climate change and global urbanization have often been anticipated to increase future population exposure (frequency and intensity) to extreme weather over the coming decades. Here we examine how changes in urban land extent, population, and climate will respectively and collectively affect spatial patterns of future population exposures to climate extremes (including hot days, cold days, heavy rainfalls, and severe thunderstorm environments) across the continental U.S. at the end of the 21st century. Different from common impressions, we find that urban land patterns can sometimes reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, and that spatial patterns instead of total quantities of urban land are more influential to population exposures. Our findings lead to preliminary suggestions for embedding long-term climate resilience in urban and regional land-use system designs, and strongly motivate searches for optimal spatial urban land patterns that can robustly moderate population exposures to climate extremes throughout the 21st century.

 

Recent years have witnessed increasing concerns towards unfair decisions made by machine learning algorithms. To improve fairness in model decisions, various fairness notions have been proposed and many fairness-aware methods are developed. However, most of existing definitions and methods focus only on single-label classification. Fairness for multi-label classification, where each instance is associated with more than one labels, is still yet to establish. To fill this gap, we study fairness-aware multi-label classification in this paper. We start by extending Demographic Parity (DP) and Equalized Opportunity (EOp), two popular fairness notions, to multi-label classification scenarios. Through a systematic study, we show that on multi-label data, because of unevenly distributed labels, EOp usually fails to construct a reliable estimate on labels with few instances. We then propose a new framework named Similarity s-induced Fairness (sγ -SimFair). This new framework utilizes data that have similar labels when estimating fairness on a particular label group for better stability, and can unify DP and EOp. Theoretical analysis and experimental results on real-world datasets together demonstrate the advantage of sγ -SimFair over existing methods on multi-label classification tasks.

 

Since Rendle and Krichene argued that commonly used sampling-based evaluation metrics are “inconsistent” with respect to the global metrics (even in expectation), there have been a few studies on the sampling-based recommender system evaluation. Existing methods try either mapping the sampling-based metrics to their global counterparts or more generally, learning the empirical rank distribution to estimate the top-K metrics. However, despite existing efforts, there is still a lack of rigorous theoretical understanding of the proposed metric estimators, and the basic item sampling also suffers from the “blind spot” issue, i.e., estimation accuracy to recover the top-K metrics when K is small can still be rather substantial. In this paper, we provide an in-depth investigation into these problems and make two innovative contributions. First, we propose a new item-sampling estimator that explicitly optimizes the error with respect to the ground truth, and theoretically highlights its subtle difference against prior work. Second, we propose a new adaptive sampling method that aims to deal with the “blind spot” problem and also demonstrate the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can be generalized for such a setting. Our experimental results confirm our statistical analysis and the superiority of the proposed works. This study helps lay the theoretical foundation for adopting item sampling metrics for recommendation evaluation and provides strong evidence for making item sampling a powerful and reliable tool for recommendation evaluation.